VoteScope Labs · Updated October 4, 2026
U.S. House 2026
Same polls, different physics. Here is what Orbit, our quantum engine, sees next to Harfang des neiges, our classical model.
Democrat · Chance of control
85% Harfang 96% Seats won: 239 · Harfang 235Republican · Chance of control
15% Harfang 4% Seats won: 196 · Harfang 200Generic ballot according to Orbit
D 54.1 · R 45.7 Days to election: 30Orbit (quantum) vs. Harfang des neiges (classical): do they agree?
They agree
-
Democrat -
Republican
What if we listened to both engines at once?
50/50 blend: Democrat 235 · Chance of control90%
The blend gives each riding the average of the chances announced by Orbit and by our reference forecast, then counts the favourites. In our Quebec replays (2018 and 2022, the day before the vote), the blend always beat the reference forecast alone: in 2018 the error drops from 6.5 to 4.5 seats, and the announced probabilities become far more reliable. The 50/50 split is a choice of principle, not a setting tuned on those two elections. October 5 will be its first real blind test.
The closest races according to Orbit
| Race | Polls | Democratic chances · Orbit (quantum) | Democratic chances · Harfang (classical) |
|---|---|---|---|
| NC-1 | 0 | 50% | 73% |
| OH-7 | 0 | 51% | 29% |
| FL-4 | 0 | 48% | 29% |
| MI-4 | 0 | 48% | 44% |
| TX-28 | 0 | 52% | 88% |
| OH-9 | 0 | 52% | 73% |
| CO-4 | 0 | 48% | 39% |
| FL-22 | 0 | 52% | 52% |
| WI-1 | 0 | 53% | 49% |
| TX-35 | 0 | 53% | 46% |
| FL-14 | 0 | 53% | 80% |
| MO-2 | 0 | 47% | 45% |
| OH-15 | 0 | 53% | 40% |
| FL-7 | 0 | 47% | 44% |
| CA-40 | 0 | 46% | 41% |
| TX-34 | 0 | 54% | 73% |
| PA-1 | 0 | 46% | 28% |
| VA-1 | 0 | 46% | 45% |
| AZ-8 | 0 | 45% | 33% |
| NC-11 | 0 | 55% | 54% |
| FL-13 | 0 | 44% | 45% |
| AZ-2 | 0 | 57% | 48% |
| NC-7 | 0 | 43% | 20% |
| NC-3 | 0 | 43% | 35% |
| FL-16 | 0 | 42% | 42% |
Where the two engines disagree
- AK-AL Orbit (quantum): D 76% Harfang (classical): D 7%
- AZ-2 Orbit (quantum): D 57% Harfang (classical): D 48%
- FL-9 Orbit (quantum): D 32% Harfang (classical): D 53%
- IA-2 Orbit (quantum): D 38% Harfang (classical): D 56%
- MT-1 Orbit (quantum): D 59% Harfang (classical): D 43%
- NC-1 Orbit (quantum): D 50% Harfang (classical): D 73%
- OH-7 Orbit (quantum): D 51% Harfang (classical): D 29%
- OH-10 Orbit (quantum): D 59% Harfang (classical): D 13%
- OH-15 Orbit (quantum): D 53% Harfang (classical): D 40%
- TX-15 Orbit (quantum): D 33% Harfang (classical): D 51%
- TX-35 Orbit (quantum): D 53% Harfang (classical): D 46%
- WI-1 Orbit (quantum): D 53% Harfang (classical): D 49%
No past U.S. election has been replayed in Orbit yet: these numbers have no accuracy record.
Orbit’s instruments
Voters who switched sides since the last election
6.8 at least, in points of the electorateCone of possibilities until election day
± 17.0 points of maximum movement for a party at 50%Days to election
30 November 3, 2026How Orbit works, in three ideas
Opinion travels on a sphere
A 2-point gain does not mean the same thing for a party at 5% and a party at 40%. By placing opinion on a curved sphere, Orbit knows this by instinct, and it carries the national swing to each riding the way you carry an arrow across a globe.
Polls are measurements
As in quantum physics, each poll is a measurement of a hidden state: the electorate. Orbit tracks that state day after day, erases each pollster’s own lean and lets no one dictate the average alone.
Qubits instead of dice
Each riding becomes a small quantum register. Instead of rolling dice 50,000 times, Orbit counts the seats exactly, in seconds. A real quantum circuit gives the same answer, to the billionth.