Virginia’s 6th District
U.S. House · VA-6
Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Republicans a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 23.1 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 1%.
Compared with the average
| Republican | Democrat | Other | |
|---|---|---|---|
| VA-6 | 61.5% | 38.4% | 0.1% |
| National averageUnited States | 44.2%+17.3 | 54.5%−16.1 | 1.2%−1.2 |
Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Polls in this district
1 poll
Each poll as the pollster published it; these are not the Vote-Scope projection. When a pollster tests several ballots (with or without a given candidate), each one is shown as a scenario.
Local profile
| Latino citizens aged 18 and over | 4.5% (± 0.2) |
|---|
Current member
Ben Cline · Republican
Primary results
| Democratic primary | Beth Macy | 0.0% | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Republican primary | Ben Cline | 0.0% |
Republican 
Democrat Previous election (2024)
The Republicans won by 28.3 points.
Our current projection: the Republicans ahead by 23.1 points.
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated