Vote-Scope indexes
Each index answers one question with a number tracked over time, built from public data and published with its method.
| Index | What it measures | Today | Zone | 7-day change | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lame-Duck Index | How politically constrained is the presidency right now? | 81/100 | Fully Lame | +0.9 | October 15 |
| Canada Goose Index | How much standing does Carney bring to the CUSMA table? | 88/100 | Honking | +1.3 | October 15 |
| Barrage Index | How solid is France’s republican front against the RN ahead of 2027? | 16/100 | Breached | +4.5 | October 15 |
| Fraser Interim Index | Do Ontario Liberals poll better under Fraser as interim leader? | 68/100 | Positive Fraser signal | — | October 15 |
| CUSMA Showdown | Who leads the CUSMA negotiating table — Carney or Trump? | +69 pts | Canada commands the table | +0.2 | October 15 |
Other indexes
- Candidate BarometerDo Quebec parties give women their winnable ridings, or just their lost ones?
Methodology after the signal
How these indexes are built
Each index combines a few public components, weighted and shown on its page. Scores are rounded to whole numbers: a decimal would suggest a precision these measures do not have.
- Public sources: polls, economic indicators, prediction markets (Polymarket). Each index page lists them.
- Methods are public and versioned; any change of method is dated and explained.
- Each index’s history is published in the open API; no score is revised after the fact without a correction notice.