Fraser Interim Index
Do Ontario Liberals poll better when John Fraser holds the interim leadership? A single score summarises five years of topline evidence.
Do the Liberals genuinely poll better under Fraser as interim leader, or is the effect noise?
Index score · as of October 15, 2026
68 /100
Positive Fraser signal
337 polls, June 21, 2018 to September 29, 2026
Interpretation
50 is neutral; above 50 means Fraser interim periods poll better after simple controls. This is an editorial indicator, not a projection input.
Five leadership periods
John Fraser
- vs PC
- -4.7%
- vs NDP
- +1.5%
- Polls
- 25
Steven Del Duca
- vs PC
- -9.6%
- vs NDP
- +3.7%
- Polls
- 135
John Fraser
- vs PC
- -12.8%
- vs NDP
- -0.1%
- Polls
- 19
Bonnie Crombie
- vs PC
- -15.4%
- vs NDP
- +9.7%
- Polls
- 134
John Fraser
- vs PC
- -5.7%
- vs NDP
- +12.5%
- Polls
- 24
Methodology after the signal
Comparing interim to permanent: a controlled editorial scan.
The Fraser Interim Index is not a projection input. It is an editorial indicator built to answer one question: do Ontario Liberals poll better under Fraser's interim stewardship than under permanent leaders, after controlling for basic sources of variation?
- Editorial intent: the index compares polling averages across five leadership periods (2018–2026) — three Fraser interim stints and two permanent-leader periods (Del Duca, Crombie). It is a signal, not proof of causality.
- Data: 324 Ontario polls published from June 2018 to April 2026. Each poll is matched to the leader in office when it was conducted.
- Method: weighted ordinary least squares with firm, electoral cycle, and time-trend controls. The coefficient on the Fraser-interim indicator is mapped to a 0–100 index (50 = neutral, above 50 = interim periods poll relatively better).
- The index is recalculated as each new poll arrives.
Caveats
Uses preserved Ontario Wikipedia toplines when available. Interpret as an editorial signal, not proof of causality: interim periods overlap with post-election resets and leadership contests.
Source data
Raw index data (score, periods, model summary) is available in machine-readable JSON: /web_data/on-fraser-interim/latest.json
Version 1.0 · Publication status: publishable_with_caveats