Spain Desk · Congress of Deputies
Spain general election: polls and seat projection
Not called yet. If the dissolution decree is published on October 6, Spain votes on Sunday, November 29. The legal deadline is August 22, 2027. Every possible date →
On today's polls, PP and Vox win an outright majority in more than 99 of 100 simulations.
Updated 3 October 2026 · latest poll 2026-09-26
Does a snap election pay?
What the numbers tell the person who has to decide.
- PSOE
- 102 seats121 in 2023 · range 88–116
- The bloc that re-elected Sánchez in 2023
- 143 seats179 in 2023 · majority in fewer than 1 of 100 simulations
- PP + Vox
- 205 seatsrange 190–219 · majority in more than 99 of 100
- PP alone
- 140 seatsoutright majority in fewer than 1 of 100
Today's polls give no arithmetic reason to go early: the PSOE would lose about 19 seats and the 2023 majority would be out of reach. A snap election would come from elsewhere: deadlock in Congress, the calendar, or a bet that the campaign moves votes.
The split left of the PSOE
Running apart, Sumar and Podemos win 11 seats. Together, on the same votes, they would win 20.
D'Hondt punishes mid-sized parties that split in small provinces. The gap (9 seats) is bigger than most groups in Congress.
Housing · the issue behind the snap election
Housing went from 2.5% in 2022 to 42.6% in 2026: it is now what worries Spaniards most.
Share of Spaniards naming housing among the country’s top three problems, CIS barometer month by month. In September 2026: 37.5%, ahead of the economy and immigration. 27.9% say it affects them personally.
Dashed line: October 2, 2026, Congress votes down the housing decrees.
See the data by year
| Year | Average |
|---|---|
| 2015 | 1.8 % |
| 2016 | 1.5 % |
| 2017 | 1.5 % |
| 2018 | 2.1 % |
| 2019 | 2.9 % |
| 2020 | 1.4 % |
| 2021 | 1.6 % |
| 2022 | 2.5 % |
| 2023 | 7.4 % |
| 2024 | 14.8 % |
| 2025 | 32.3 % |
| 2026 | 42.6 % |
Source: CIS monthly barometers (multiple-answer question: up to three problems). CIS 3577
What worries Spaniards most (CIS, September 2026)
- Housing 37.5 %
- Economy 21.6 %
- Immigration 19.7 %
- Politicians 13.9 %
- Unemployment 11.5 %
- Health care 11.1 %
- Corruption 6.5 %
Which party would handle housing best?
| January 2025 | September 2026 | |
|---|---|---|
| PSOE | 20.1 % | 18.5 % |
| PP | 18.0 % | 14.4 % |
| Vox | 14.1 % | 14.4 % |
| Sumar | 6.3 % | not published |
| Podemos | 4.0 % | not published |
| None | 23.8 % | 22.6 % |
Nobody convinces: “none” is the most common answer (22.6%). The PSOE still leads (18.5%) but is down 1.6 points since January 2025; the PP is down 3.6 and Vox holds (14.4%). So far the crisis has no clear winner.
Second model · Orbit (beta)
Orbit, our experimental model, reaches the same conclusion: PP and Vox win a majority in 89 of 100 simulations.
Orbit uses the same polls with different mathematics: it treats opinion as a position moving on a sphere rather than as an average. It is still in beta: we publish it for comparison, and a 50/50 mix with our main model, Harfang des neiges, gives a third reading. On eve-of-election polls, Orbit would have misplaced 14 seats in 2023 and 10 in November 2019.
| Party | Harfang des neiges | Orbit (beta) | 50/50 mix |
|---|---|---|---|
| PP | 140 124–155 | 142 106–178 | 140 116–167 |
| PSOE | 102 88–116 | 97 64–130 | 100 75–123 |
| Vox | 64 52–76 | 65 35–97 | 64 44–86 |
| Sumar | 8 6–12 | 7 1–21 | 8 3–16 |
| Podemos | 3 1–5 | 3 0–12 | 3 0–8 |
| ERC | 8 4–12 | 7 0–13 | 7 1–12 |
| EH Bildu | 7 3–11 | 5 0–10 | 7 0–10 |
| Junts | 4 1–8 | 3 0–9 | 4 0–8 |
| PNV | 5 2–7 | 3 0–8 | 4 0–7 |
| SALF | 0 0–1 | 0 0–4 | 0 0–2 |
| PP + Vox majority | >99 % | 89 % | 94 % |
How we compare
The other forecasts reach the same sum: PP and Vox above 176.
We only publish figures checked at the original source, with their date and link. A probability only appears when the source computes one.
| Source | Date | PP | PSOE | Vox | PP+Vox | PP+Vox majority odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vote-Scope · Harfang des neiges | 3 Oct | 140 | 102 | 64 | 205 | >99 % |
| Orbite (beta) | 3 Oct | 142 | 97 | 65 | 208 | 89 % |
| The Objective · Votómetro (Redlines) | 3 Oct | 140 | 107 | 65 | 205 | 94 % |
Possible dates
When Spain would vote, depending on the dissolution date
Polling day falls 54 days after the dissolution decree is published in the official gazette (BOE).
| Decree in the BOE | Polling day |
|---|---|
| Tuesday, 6 October 2026 | Sunday, 29 November 2026 |
| Tuesday, 20 October 2026 | Sunday, 13 December 2026 |
| Tuesday, 27 October 2026 | Sunday, 20 December 2026 |
In 2027, May 23 already brings municipal elections and votes in many of the autonomous communities.
Deadline: Sunday, August 22, 2027, with dissolution no later than June 28, 2027.
Province by province
Where the last seat is decided
In these provinces the last seat changes hands on a handful of votes. That is where the majority is won.
Barcelona 32 seats
PSOE 12ERC 6PP 5Vox 4Sumar 2Junts 2Podemos 1
Seat in play for CUP (28 %), Aliança Catalana (42 %)
Sevilla 12 seats
PP 4PSOE 4Vox 2Sumar 1Adelante Andalucía 1
Seat in play for Sumar (51 %), Adelante Andalucía (56 %)
Lleida 4 seats
PP 1PSOE 1ERC 1Junts 1
Seat in play for PP (56 %), Vox (24 %), Junts (60 %)
Gipuzkoa 6 seats
EH Bildu 3PNV 2PSOE 1
Seat in play for PP (35 %)
Girona 6 seats
PSOE 2PP 1Vox 1ERC 1Junts 1
Seat in play for PP (54 %), Vox (69 %), Aliança Catalana (44 %)
Madrid 38 seats
PP 17PSOE 9Vox 8Sumar 3Podemos 1
Valencia/València 16 seats
PP 6PSOE 5Vox 4Sumar 1
Seat in play for Podemos (40 %)
Cádiz 8 seats
PP 3PSOE 3Vox 2
Seat in play for Adelante Andalucía (34 %)
Navarra 5 seats
PSOE 2PP 1EH Bildu 1UPN 1
Seat in play for Vox (23 %), UPN (78 %)
Balears, Illes 8 seats
PP 4PSOE 2Vox 2
Seat in play for Sumar (34 %)
Las Palmas 8 seats
PSOE 3PP 2Vox 2CC 1
Seat in play for CC (80 %)
Valladolid 5 seats
PP 3PSOE 1Vox 1
All 52 constituencies
| Province | Seats | Most likely split | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Madrid | 38 | PP 17PSOE 9Vox 8Sumar 3Podemos 1 | 1 % |
| Barcelona | 32 | PSOE 12ERC 6PP 5Vox 4Sumar 2Junts 2Podemos 1 | <1 % |
| Valencia/València | 16 | PP 6PSOE 5Vox 4Sumar 1 | 9 % |
| Alicante/Alacant | 12 | PP 5PSOE 4Vox 3 | 15 % |
| Sevilla | 12 | PP 4PSOE 4Vox 2Sumar 1Adelante Andalucía 1 | 9 % |
| Málaga | 11 | PP 5PSOE 3Vox 3 | 24 % |
| Murcia | 10 | PP 5Vox 3PSOE 2 | 36 % |
| A Coruña | 8 | PP 5PSOE 2BNG 1 | 23 % |
| Balears, Illes | 8 | PP 4PSOE 2Vox 2 | 28 % |
| Bizkaia | 8 | PNV 3PSOE 2EH Bildu 2PP 1 | 18 % |
| Cádiz | 8 | PP 3PSOE 3Vox 2 | 23 % |
| Las Palmas | 8 | PSOE 3PP 2Vox 2CC 1 | 25 % |
| Santa Cruz de Tenerife | 8 | PP 4PSOE 3CC 1 | 32 % |
| Asturias | 7 | PP 3PSOE 2Vox 2 | 28 % |
| Granada | 7 | PP 3PSOE 2Vox 2 | 57 % |
| Pontevedra | 7 | PP 4PSOE 2BNG 1 | 37 % |
| Zaragoza | 7 | PP 3PSOE 2Vox 2 | 50 % |
| Almería | 6 | PP 3Vox 2PSOE 1 | 59 % |
| Córdoba | 6 | PP 3PSOE 2Vox 1 | 57 % |
| Gipuzkoa | 6 | EH Bildu 3PNV 2PSOE 1 | 20 % |
| Girona | 6 | PSOE 2PP 1Vox 1ERC 1Junts 1 | 12 % |
| Tarragona | 6 | PSOE 3PP 1Vox 1ERC 1 | 21 % |
| Toledo | 6 | PP 2PSOE 2Vox 2 | 38 % |
| Badajoz | 5 | PP 2PSOE 2Vox 1 | 72 % |
| Cantabria | 5 | PP 3PSOE 1Vox 1 | 51 % |
| Castellón/Castelló | 5 | PP 2PSOE 2Vox 1 | 49 % |
| Huelva | 5 | PP 2PSOE 2Vox 1 | 66 % |
| Jaén | 5 | PP 2PSOE 2Vox 1 | 66 % |
| Navarra | 5 | PSOE 2PP 1EH Bildu 1UPN 1 | 25 % |
| Valladolid | 5 | PP 3PSOE 1Vox 1 | 47 % |
| Albacete | 4 | PP 2PSOE 1Vox 1 | 85 % |
| Araba/Álava | 4 | PP 1PSOE 1EH Bildu 1PNV 1 | 41 % |
| Burgos | 4 | PP 2PSOE 1Vox 1 | 74 % |
| Cáceres | 4 | PP 2PSOE 1Vox 1 | 61 % |
| Ciudad Real | 4 | PP 2PSOE 1Vox 1 | 84 % |
| La Rioja | 4 | PP 3PSOE 1 | 38 % |
| León | 4 | PP 2PSOE 1Vox 1 | 75 % |
| Lleida | 4 | PP 1PSOE 1ERC 1Junts 1 | 22 % |
| Lugo | 4 | PP 3PSOE 1 | 63 % |
| Ourense | 4 | PP 3PSOE 1 | 66 % |
| Salamanca | 4 | PP 2PSOE 1Vox 1 | 82 % |
| Ávila | 3 | PP 2Vox 1 | 36 % |
| Cuenca | 3 | PP 1PSOE 1Vox 1 | 63 % |
| Guadalajara | 3 | PP 1PSOE 1Vox 1 | 85 % |
| Huesca | 3 | PP 2PSOE 1 | 49 % |
| Palencia | 3 | PP 2PSOE 1 | 60 % |
| Segovia | 3 | PP 2PSOE 1 | 52 % |
| Teruel | 3 | PP 1PSOE 1Vox 1 | 55 % |
| Zamora | 3 | PP 2PSOE 1 | 62 % |
| Soria | 2 | PP 1PSOE 1 | 76 % |
| Ceuta | 1 | PP 1 | 71 % |
| Melilla | 1 | PP 1 | >99 % |
Why trust it
Tested on past elections before going live.
Using eve-of-election polls, this method would have misplaced 12 of 350 seats in 2023 and 14 in November 2019. The real result landed inside our ranges 92 times out of 100.
In the Clacton by-election (U.K., August 13, 2026) we projected Nigel Farage at 62.6%: he won 63.3%, with Count Binface second, as forecast.
We were among the first models to flag that Texas could tip toward the Democrats.
Before the 2026 international football tournament, our model had Spain as title favourite (1st of 48 teams). Spain won the final.
In this desk
Everything this desk publishes.
- Congress
All 350 seats projected province by province, with the dates a snap election could fall on.
- Housing tracker
How housing became Spain’s top worry, and which party voters trust on it.
Methodology after the signal
How it works
A polling average, carried into every province and allocated under the real electoral law, thousands of times.
- Published polls go through a Bayesian time-series model (BSTS), the same one behind all our forecasts, after correcting each pollster for its measured lean. Third-party re-estimates of CIS data are left out.
- The national vote is carried into each province from the 2023 general election. New parties start from their latest result: SALF from the 2024 European election, Aliança Catalana and Adelante Andalucía from their regional elections.
- Each simulation adds the real error of Spanish polls (measured 2015–2023), a regional effect and a provincial effect, then allocates seats under D'Hondt with the 3% threshold. 50,000 simulations.
- Assumes polling day on Sunday, 29 November 2026. Seats per province are computed from INE population until the official BOE allocation is published.