2028 Presidential · Invisible primary
The White House race begins in 2028.
Long before the first vote, the race is measured in endorsements and primary polling. Here is where the Democratic and Republican fields stand — and the electoral-college map.
It is mid-2026: the 2028 U.S. presidential race is in its "invisible primary" — the contest for endorsements, money and name recognition, long before a single vote. Based on our quality-weighted aggregate of 393 national primary polls (updated October 23, 2026), JD Vance dominates the Republican field at 39.3%, while Kamala Harris leads a far more open Democratic field at 27.1%.
The electoral-college map below shows the certified 2024 result (Trump 312 / Harris 226) as a reference point — NOT a 2028 projection. The general-election model switches on once Democrat-versus-Republican matchup polling accumulates, from 2027.
2028 primaries — where the fields stand
Quality-weighted average of national primary polls (recency, sample size, house effect, intra-firm decay, concentration cap). Per-candidate share across the polls that test them — not a renormalized field.
- 1Donald TrumpMAGAIneligible45.5%‡→
- 2JD VanceMAGAProbable39.3%▼ 2.3
- 3Marco RubioEstablishmentTested19.0%▼ 1.5
- 4Donald Trump Jr.MAGATested12.2%▲ 2.2
- 5Ron DeSantisMAGATested8.2%▲ 1.4
- 6Robert F. KennedyMAGATested4.7%▲ 0.6
- 7Ted CruzMAGATested3.3%▼ 0.3
- 8Nikki HaleyEstablishmentTested3.3%▲ 0.7
- 9Greg AbbottUnalignedTested2.5%▲ 0.3
- 10Tucker Swanson McNear CarlsonMAGATested2.0%▲ 0.3
- 11Mike PenceUnalignedTested1.9%→
- 12Vivek G. RamaswamyMAGATested1.8%▼ 0.9
Undecided / other: 11.3%
‡ The 22nd Amendment bars Trump from a third term, but pollsters test the scenario too often to omit — his figure is the average of only the polls that include him (so not comparable to the rest of the field). See the third-term proposal.
Field scenarios
What if a dominant figure doesn’t run? Shares renormalized among the scenario’s active candidates.
Democrats — open field
- 1 Harris 35.2%
- 2 Newsom 19.6%
- 3 Buttigieg 14.8%
- 4 Ocasio-Cortez 12.8%
- 5 Shapiro 6.9%
Democrats — without Harris
- 1 Newsom 30.2%
- 2 Buttigieg 22.8%
- 3 Ocasio-Cortez 19.8%
- 4 Shapiro 10.6%
- 5 Booker 6.5%
Republicans — open field
- 1 Vance 51.0%
- 2 Rubio 24.6%
- 3 DeSantis 10.6%
- 4 Cruz 4.3%
- 5 Haley 4.3%
Republicans — without Vance
- 1 Rubio 50.3%
- 2 DeSantis 21.6%
- 3 Cruz 8.8%
- 4 Haley 8.7%
- 5 Ramaswamy 4.9%
Early states
Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, Nevada — the first contests on the calendar.
New Hampshire
South Carolina
Nevada
The electoral college
Maine and Nebraska split by district (ME-2 → Republican, NE-2 → Democratic in 2024).
Certified 2024 result — reference baseline, NOT a 2028 projection.