2027 French presidential · Polling average and forecast
France 2027: who can win?
Every published poll, combined into one average, and the election simulated 50,000 times: who reaches the runoff, and who wins it.
OpinionWayOctober 13–14
Le Pen · Attal · Glucksmann
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon 53% chance of this matchup Runoff: Mélenchon 35.5% – Le Pen 64.5%
- Édouard Philippe 24% chance of this matchup Runoff: Philippe 45.7% – Le Pen 54.3%
- Raphaël Glucksmann 14% chance of this matchup Runoff: Glucksmann 44.9% – Le Pen 55.1%
The 8 candidate lineups tested recently, each weighted by how many polls tested it.
19 polls on this configuration · latest 1 day ago
Latest polls
- OpinionWay October 13–14 · n=1,043 Le Pen 35.0%Mélenchon 15.0%Glucksmann 13.0%
- IFOP October 12–14 · n=1,525 Le Pen 32.0%Mélenchon 16.0%Philippe 13.0%
- Harris Interactive October 7–12 · n=2,004 Le Pen 35.0%Mélenchon 18.0%Philippe 13.0%
- Harris Interactive October 5–8 · n=2,004 Le Pen 35.0%Mélenchon 18.0%Philippe 13.0%
Compare candidate lineups
Until candidacies are final, French pollsters test several candidate lists. Pick one to see our first-round average and the most likely runoff.
19 polls on this configuration · latest 1 day ago
First round
Mean voting intention ± model uncertainty. The top two advance to the runoff.
Projected runoff
Vote transfer estimated from duel polls and historical transfer patterns.
Marine Le Pen wins · Probability of this matchup : 55%
How to read this page
Each candidate has a single level, tracked over time and read from every poll filed with France’s polling commission, whatever lineup it tested: a lineup with few polls borrows from the others. The margins account for the months left: in 2017 and 2022, six months out, polls missed the result by six points per candidate on average. The runoff combines head-to-head polls with the vote transfers observed since 2017.
- At the top: the latest published poll and our average for the most-tested lineup.
- The comparison shows what one candidacy changes: with or without Attal, Philippe or Hollande.
- Every candidate has a profile and every poll its own page, with the official notice.
Based on our aggregation of 308 polls (updated October 15, 2026), in the most-polled lineup Marine Le Pen — the officially declared National Rally candidate — leads the first round at 36.2%, ahead of Jean-Luc Mélenchon at 17.1%. Both would advance to the runoff.
In the runoff, our forecast has Marine Le Pen ahead at 64.6% against Jean-Luc Mélenchon (35.4%), based on head-to-head polls and historical transfers. This is our best central estimate for that lineup, surrounded by a range of plausible outcomes; the 2027 campaign is just starting and the field of 25 declared candidates keeps shifting.
The candidates
Status as of October 15, 2026. Click a name for their profile: background, polls and runoffs.
- Marine Le Pen Far right (RN) Declared
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon Radical left (LFI) Declared
- Gabriel Attal Centre (Renaissance) Declared
- Éric Zemmour Far right (Reconquête) Declared
- Marine Tondelier Greens Declared
- Édouard Philippe Centre-right (Horizons) Declared
- Bruno Retailleau Right (LR) Declared
- Fabien Roussel Left (PCF) Declared
- Nicolas Dupont-Aignan Sovereignist (DLF) Declared
- Nathalie Arthaud Far left (LO) Declared
- Anasse Kazib Far left (Révolution permanente) Declared
- Benoît Mathieu Other Declared
- Bernard Cazeneuve Social democrats (La Convention) Declared
- David Lisnard Right (Nouvelle Énergie) Declared
- Delphine Batho Greens (Génération écologie) Declared
- Florian Philippot Sovereignist (Les Patriotes) Declared
- Francis Lalanne Other (France Libre) Declared
- François Asselineau Sovereignist (UPR) Declared
- François Ruffin Populist left (Picardie debout) Declared
- Karim Bouamrane Social democrats (PS) Declared
- Manolo Mlekuz Other (Trajectoire) Declared
- Olivier Becht Centre (Renaissance) Declared
- Selma Labib Far left (NPA) Declared
- Sylvain Durif Other (Elvita) Declared
- Xavier Bertrand Right (Nous France) Declared
- Raphaël Glucksmann Social democrats (Place publique) PS primary
- Olivier Faure Social democrats (PS) PS primary
- Emmanuel Maurel Left (GRS) PS primary
- Jérôme Guedj Social democrats (PS) PS primary
- Ségolène Royal Social democrats (PS) PS primary
- François Hollande Social democrats (PS) Probable
Go further
Socialist primary · October 11, 2026
Raphaël Glucksmann wins the primary outright, with 66.2%
Olivier Faure 14.5%, Ségolène Royal 7.6%, Emmanuel Maurel 5.9%, Jérôme Guedj 5.8%. 120,787 voters out of 134,467 registered.
Candidacy effect
Without Philippe, 42% of those voters go to Attal
Measured inside the polls: two lineups from the same survey, one name changed. Where each candidacy takes its votes from.
Tracked continuously
Barrage Index — 15.8/100 · Breached
Does France’s republican front still hold against the RN?
Legislative — if dissolved today
The RN has a 45% chance of an absolute majority if the republican front holds as in 2024
French legislative polling is event-driven — it all but disappears outside crises. The model therefore anchors its projection to the last direct poll (Oct. 2025) and applies the movement of continuously-measured presidential intentions: the differential bridge. The 577 constituencies are then simulated with transfers and withdrawals calibrated on the 1,646 runoffs of 2017-2024, across three republican-front scenarios.
Official 2022 results
The 2022 map, constituency by constituency
Leading bloc and leading candidate in round one, the Macron / Le Pen runoff in round two: all 566 constituencies, actual Ministry of the Interior results.