Ontario Forecast
Leading: Progressive Conservative, with 66 of 124 projected seats and a 73% chance of a majority.
Seat forecast
| Party | Projected seats | Range | Chance of a majority |
|---|---|---|---|
| Progressive Conservative | 66 | 61–73 | 73% |
| Ontario NDP | 28 | 28–28 | <1% |
| Ontario Liberal | 27 | 20–32 | <1% |
| Ontario Green | 2 | 2–2 | <1% |
| Other | 1 | 1–1 | <1% |
63 seats for a majority, out of 124 · 47 polls, 50,000 simulations
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
Current Legislative Assembly Composition
Seats — 124 total
- Progressive Conservative 79
- Ontario NDP 26
- Ontario Liberal 14
- Ontario Green 2
- Independents 2
- Vacant 1
Projected vote share
| Party | Vote | 7-day change | Chance of finishing first |
|---|---|---|---|
| Progressive Conservative | 40.3% | −0.1 pts | >99% |
| Other | 3.1% | −0.4 pts | <1% |
| Ontario NDP | 20.7% | +0.5 pts | <1% |
| Ontario Liberal | 33.8% | +0.7 pts | <1% |
| Ontario Green | 2.1% | −0.4 pts | <1% |
Analysis
Vote intention
Raw polls (dots) and model estimate (diamonds) with 95% confidence interval.
Scenario probabilities
Across 50,000 simulations of the election.
Riding map
Colour shows the leading party; the shade, how settled the race is.
All ridings
All 124 ridings, sortable by leading party, margin and chance.
| Riding | Province | Leading | Vote | Margin | Chance | vs 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hamilton Mountain | ON | Ontario Liberal | 34.4% | 1.6 pts | 52% | Progressive Conservative → Ontario Liberal |
| Mississauga Centre | ON | Progressive Conservative | 45.0% | 1.6 pts | 58% | Hold |
| Newmarket—Aurora | ON | Progressive Conservative | 45.7% | 1.7 pts | 63% | Hold |
| Milton | ON | Progressive Conservative | 45.7% | 1.7 pts | 63% | Hold |
| Scarborough—Agincourt | ON | Ontario Liberal | 46.3% | 1.7 pts | 54% | Progressive Conservative → Ontario Liberal |
| Mississauga—Streetsville | ON | Ontario Liberal | 46.5% | 1.7 pts | 65% | Progressive Conservative → Ontario Liberal |
| Peterborough—Kawartha | ON | Progressive Conservative | 40.1% | 1.7 pts | 72% | Hold |
| Oakville | ON | Ontario Liberal | 47.4% | 2.0 pts | 76% | Progressive Conservative → Ontario Liberal |
| Scarborough—Rouge Park | ON | Progressive Conservative | 46.0% | 2.0 pts | 74% | Hold |
| Mississauga—Lakeshore | ON | Ontario Liberal | 47.1% | 2.0 pts | 76% | Progressive Conservative → Ontario Liberal |
| Etobicoke Centre | ON | Ontario Liberal | 46.3% | 2.0 pts | 74% | Progressive Conservative → Ontario Liberal |
| Mississauga East—Cooksville | ON | Ontario Liberal | 46.5% | 2.3 pts | 83% | Progressive Conservative → Ontario Liberal |
| Whitby | ON | Progressive Conservative | 46.3% | 3.3 pts | 97% | Hold |
| Pickering—Uxbridge | ON | Progressive Conservative | 46.3% | 3.4 pts | 97% | Hold |
| Oakville North—Burlington | ON | Progressive Conservative | 47.8% | 3.6 pts | 98% | Hold |
| Markham—Stouffville | ON | Progressive Conservative | 48.7% | 4.0 pts | 99% | Hold |
| Humber River—Black Creek | ON | Ontario NDP | 36.4% | 4.2 pts | 99% | Hold |
| Parry Sound—Muskoka | ON | Progressive Conservative | 44.0% | 4.7 pts | 94% | Hold |
| Sault Ste. Marie | ON | Ontario NDP | 45.7% | 5.1 pts | >99% | Progressive Conservative → Ontario NDP |
| Burlington | ON | Ontario Liberal | 46.5% | 5.2 pts | 99% | Progressive Conservative → Ontario Liberal |
| Mississauga—Erin Mills | ON | Ontario Liberal | 47.7% | 5.2 pts | 99% | Progressive Conservative → Ontario Liberal |
| Hamilton East—Stoney Creek | ON | Progressive Conservative | 40.3% | 5.3 pts | >99% | Hold |
| Toronto Centre | ON | Ontario NDP | 45.9% | 5.3 pts | >99% | Hold |
| Mushkegowuk—James Bay | ON | Ontario NDP | 48.0% | 5.5 pts | >99% | Hold |
| Willowdale | ON | Ontario Liberal | 48.8% | 5.7 pts | 99% | Progressive Conservative → Ontario Liberal |
| Scarborough Centre | ON | Ontario Liberal | 46.8% | 5.9 pts | 99% | Progressive Conservative → Ontario Liberal |
| Ajax | ON | Ontario Liberal | 48.3% | 6.0 pts | >99% | Hold |
| Niagara Centre | ON | Ontario NDP | 43.8% | 6.8 pts | >99% | Hold |
| York South—Weston | ON | Ontario Liberal | 39.0% | 7.0 pts | >99% | Progressive Conservative → Ontario Liberal |
| Mississauga—Malton | ON | Progressive Conservative | 49.0% | 7.0 pts | >99% | Hold |
| Oshawa | ON | Ontario NDP | 46.6% | 7.0 pts | >99% | Hold |
| Eglinton—Lawrence | ON | Ontario Liberal | 52.1% | 7.1 pts | >99% | Progressive Conservative → Ontario Liberal |
| Cambridge | ON | Progressive Conservative | 43.2% | 7.6 pts | >99% | Hold |
| Carleton | ON | Progressive Conservative | 48.9% | 8.2 pts | >99% | Hold |
| Hamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas | ON | Ontario NDP | 39.7% | 8.4 pts | >99% | Hold |
| Markham—Thornhill | ON | Progressive Conservative | 51.3% | 8.6 pts | >99% | Hold |
| Algoma—Manitoulin | ON | Progressive Conservative | 39.1% | 8.7 pts | >99% | Hold |
| St. Catharines | ON | Ontario NDP | 43.7% | 9.0 pts | >99% | Hold |
| Bay of Quinte | ON | Progressive Conservative | 43.6% | 9.9 pts | >99% | Hold |
| Kanata—Carleton | ON | Ontario Liberal | 50.1% | 10.1 pts | >99% | Hold |
| Kitchener—Conestoga | ON | Progressive Conservative | 41.1% | 10.3 pts | >99% | Hold |
| Spadina—Fort York | ON | Ontario NDP | 46.2% | 10.4 pts | >99% | Hold |
| Scarborough North | ON | Progressive Conservative | 49.4% | 10.7 pts | >99% | Hold |
| York Centre | ON | Progressive Conservative | 51.0% | 11.0 pts | >99% | Hold |
| Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte | ON | Progressive Conservative | 49.3% | 11.5 pts | >99% | Hold |
| Glengarry—Prescott—Russell | ON | Progressive Conservative | 50.8% | 11.5 pts | >99% | Hold |
| Parkdale—High Park | ON | Ontario NDP | 46.7% | 11.5 pts | >99% | Hold |
| Timiskaming—Cochrane | ON | Ontario NDP | 47.3% | 11.6 pts | >99% | Hold |
| University—Rosedale | ON | Ontario NDP | 46.7% | 11.7 pts | >99% | Hold |
| Thunder Bay—Superior North | ON | Ontario NDP | 43.7% | 12.0 pts | >99% | Hold |