Kitchener—Conestoga
Provincial riding · Ontario · Southwestern Ontario
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the PC Party a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 10.3 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| PC | OLP | NDP | OTH | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kitchener—Conestoga | 41.1% | 30.8% | 20.1% | 4.4% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 41.6%−0.5 | 32.5%−1.7 | 20.3%−0.2 | 3.0%+1.4 |
Simple average of the 124 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Current member
Hon. Mike Harris · PC
Previous election (2025)
The PC Party won by 12.1 points, with 51.1% turnout.
Our current projection: the PC Party ahead by 10.3 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Harris Elected | PC | 16,946 | 41.5 |
| Joe Gowing | OLP | 12,031 | 29.5 |
| Jodi Szimanski | NDP | 7,551 | 18.5 |
| Brayden Wagenaar | GP | 2,227 | 5.5 |
| Jim Karahalios | OTH | 1,152 | 2.8 |
| Patrick Doucette | OTH | 890 | 2.2 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Waterloo NDP, safe seat
- Kitchener Centre GP, safe seat
- Kitchener South—Hespeler PC, safe seat
- Cambridge PC, safe seat
- Guelph GP, safe seat
- Perth—Wellington PC, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated