Mississauga Centre
Provincial riding · Ontario · Greater Toronto (905)
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the PC Party a 58% chance of winning, with an average lead of 1.6 points.
Toss-up. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 98%.
Compared with the average
| PC | OLP | NDP | OTH | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mississauga Centre | 45.0% | 44.5% | 7.4% | 2.1% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 41.6%+3.4 | 32.5%+12.0 | 20.3%−13.0 | 3.0%−0.8 |
Simple average of the 124 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Current member
Hon. Natalia Kusendova-Bashta · PC
Previous election (2025)
The PC Party won by 5.7 points, with 38.2% turnout.
Our current projection: the PC Party ahead by 1.6 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Natalia Kusendova Elected | PC | 16,592 | 46.8 |
| Sumira Malik | OLP | 14,561 | 41.1 |
| Waseem Ahmed | NDP | 2,310 | 6.5 |
| Robert Chan | GP | 1,028 | 2.9 |
| Audrey Simpson | OTH | 443 | 1.3 |
| Greg Vezina | OTH | 334 | 0.9 |
| Zulfiqar Ali | IND | 195 | 0.6 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Mississauga—Erin Mills OLP, toss-up
- Mississauga—Lakeshore OLP, toss-up
- Mississauga—Malton PC, competitive
- Mississauga—Streetsville OLP, toss-up
- Mississauga East—Cooksville OLP, toss-up
- Etobicoke—Lakeshore OLP, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated