Etobicoke—Lakeshore
Provincial riding · Ontario · City of Toronto
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Ontario Liberals a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 15.6 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| OLP | PC | NDP | OTH | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Etobicoke—Lakeshore | 53.0% | 37.4% | 8.0% | 1.2% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 32.5%+20.5 | 41.6%−4.3 | 20.3%−12.3 | 3.0%−1.8 |
Simple average of the 124 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Current member
Lee Fairclough · OLP
Previous election (2025)
The Ontario Liberals won by 8.0 points, with 46.8% turnout.
Our current projection: the Ontario Liberals ahead by 15.6 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lee Fairclough Elected | OLP | 25,195 | 48.5 |
| Christine Hogarth | PC | 21,050 | 40.5 |
| Rozhen Asrani | NDP | 3,640 | 7.0 |
| Sean Mcclocklin | GP | 1,218 | 2.3 |
| Tony Siskos | OTH | 452 | 0.9 |
| Larisa Berson | OTH | 204 | 0.4 |
| Vitas Naudziunas | OTH | 165 | 0.3 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Etobicoke Centre OLP, toss-up
- Mississauga East—Cooksville OLP, toss-up
- Mississauga—Lakeshore OLP, toss-up
- Parkdale—High Park NDP, safe seat
- York South—Weston OLP, competitive
- Etobicoke North PC, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated