Parkdale—High Park
Provincial riding · Ontario · City of Toronto
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the NDP a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 11.5 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| NDP | OLP | PC | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Parkdale—High Park | 46.7% | 35.2% | 14.5% | 2.4% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 20.3%+26.4 | 32.5%+2.7 | 41.6%−27.2 | 2.6%−0.2 |
Simple average of the 124 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Current member
Alexa Gilmour · NDP
Previous election (2025)
The NDP won by 14.5 points, with 51.8% turnout.
Our current projection: the NDP ahead by 11.5 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alexa Gilmour Elected | NDP | 20,508 | 45.3 |
| Nadia Guerrera | OLP | 13,941 | 30.8 |
| Justine Teplycky | PC | 8,058 | 17.8 |
| Anna Gorka | GP | 1,968 | 4.4 |
| Geoffrey Corfield | OTH | 462 | 1.0 |
| Rimmy Riarh | OTH | 283 | 0.6 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Davenport NDP, safe seat
- York South—Weston OLP, competitive
- Toronto—St. Paul's OLP, safe seat
- Spadina—Fort York NDP, safe seat
- Eglinton—Lawrence OLP, competitive
- Etobicoke—Lakeshore OLP, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated