Toronto—St. Paul's
Provincial riding · Ontario · City of Toronto
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Ontario Liberals a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 12.2 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| OLP | NDP | PC | OTH | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Toronto—St. Paul's | 44.9% | 32.7% | 21.9% | 0.3% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 32.5%+12.4 | 20.3%+12.3 | 41.6%−19.8 | 3.0%−2.7 |
Simple average of the 124 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Current member
Stephanie Smyth · OLP
Previous election (2025)
The Ontario Liberals won by 9.1 points, with 46.9% turnout.
Our current projection: the Ontario Liberals ahead by 12.2 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stephanie Smyth Elected | OLP | 17,451 | 40.9 |
| Jill Andrew | NDP | 13,553 | 31.7 |
| Riley Braunstein | PC | 10,822 | 25.3 |
| Chloe Tangpongprush | GP | 873 | 2.0 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- University—Rosedale NDP, safe seat
- Eglinton—Lawrence OLP, competitive
- Davenport NDP, safe seat
- Spadina—Fort York NDP, safe seat
- Toronto Centre NDP, toss-up
- Don Valley West OLP, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated