Toronto Centre
Provincial riding · Ontario · City of Toronto
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the NDP a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 5.3 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 46%.
Compared with the average
| NDP | OLP | PC | OTH | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Toronto Centre | 45.9% | 40.6% | 11.2% | 1.6% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 20.3%+25.6 | 32.5%+8.1 | 41.6%−30.5 | 3.0%−1.4 |
Simple average of the 124 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Current member
Kristyn Wong-Tam · NDP
Previous election (2025)
The NDP won by 8.3 points, with 42.6% turnout.
Our current projection: the NDP ahead by 5.3 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kristyn Wong-Tam Elected | NDP | 17,415 | 44.5 |
| Holly Rasky | OLP | 14,152 | 36.2 |
| Ruth Farkas | PC | 5,692 | 14.5 |
| Andrew Massey | GP | 1,054 | 2.7 |
| Sana Ahmad | OTH | 381 | 1.0 |
| Steve Hoehlmann | OTH | 290 | 0.7 |
| Cory Deville | IND | 151 | 0.4 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- University—Rosedale NDP, safe seat
- Spadina—Fort York NDP, safe seat
- Toronto—Danforth NDP, safe seat
- Toronto—St. Paul's OLP, safe seat
- Don Valley West OLP, safe seat
- Beaches—East York OLP, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated