Don Valley West
Provincial riding · Ontario · City of Toronto
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Ontario Liberals a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 31.1 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| OLP | PC | NDP | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Don Valley West | 61.8% | 30.7% | 5.0% | 1.3% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 32.5%+29.3 | 41.6%−11.0 | 20.3%−15.4 | 2.6%−1.2 |
Simple average of the 124 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Current member
Stephanie Bowman · OLP
Previous election (2025)
The Ontario Liberals won by 23.3 points, with 42.4% turnout.
Our current projection: the Ontario Liberals ahead by 31.1 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stephanie Bowman Elected | OLP | 18,350 | 57.2 |
| Sam Moini | PC | 10,870 | 33.9 |
| Linnea Löfström-Abary | NDP | 1,268 | 4.0 |
| Sheena Sharp | GP | 1,052 | 3.3 |
| Laurel Hobbs | OTH | 287 | 0.9 |
| Bahira Abdulsalam | IND | 247 | 0.8 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Don Valley East OLP, safe seat
- Toronto—Danforth NDP, safe seat
- University—Rosedale NDP, safe seat
- Toronto—St. Paul's OLP, safe seat
- Toronto Centre NDP, toss-up
- Eglinton—Lawrence OLP, competitive
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated