Toronto—Danforth
Provincial riding · Ontario · City of Toronto
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the NDP a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 36.3 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| NDP | OLP | PC | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Toronto—Danforth | 61.7% | 25.4% | 11.2% | 0.9% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 20.3%+41.4 | 32.5%−7.0 | 41.6%−30.5 | 2.6%−1.7 |
Simple average of the 124 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Current member
Peter Tabuns · NDP
Previous election (2025)
The NDP won by 39.2 points, with 49.8% turnout.
Our current projection: the NDP ahead by 36.3 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Peter Tabuns Elected | NDP | 25,607 | 60.4 |
| Connor Taras | OLP | 8,997 | 21.2 |
| Adam Ratkowski | PC | 6,172 | 14.6 |
| Orlando Wright | GP | 1,199 | 2.8 |
| Stephen Graham | OTH | 424 | 1.0 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Toronto Centre NDP, toss-up
- University—Rosedale NDP, safe seat
- Beaches—East York OLP, safe seat
- Don Valley West OLP, safe seat
- Don Valley East OLP, safe seat
- Spadina—Fort York NDP, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated