Spadina—Fort York
Provincial riding · Ontario · City of Toronto
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the NDP a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 10.4 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| NDP | OLP | PC | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spadina—Fort York | 46.2% | 35.8% | 16.7% | 0.8% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 20.3%+25.8 | 32.5%+3.3 | 41.6%−24.9 | 2.6%−1.8 |
Simple average of the 124 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Current member
Chris Glover · NDP
Previous election (2025)
The NDP won by 13.5 points, with 42.0% turnout.
Our current projection: the NDP ahead by 10.4 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Glover Elected | NDP | 20,441 | 45.0 |
| April Engelberg | OLP | 14,331 | 31.5 |
| Omar Farhat | PC | 9,139 | 20.1 |
| Patrick Macklem | GP | 1,220 | 2.7 |
| Ron Shaw | OTH | 293 | 0.6 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Toronto Centre NDP, toss-up
- University—Rosedale NDP, safe seat
- Toronto—St. Paul's OLP, safe seat
- Davenport NDP, safe seat
- Toronto—Danforth NDP, safe seat
- Parkdale—High Park NDP, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated