Newmarket—Aurora
Provincial riding · Ontario · Greater Toronto (905)
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the PC Party a 63% chance of winning, with an average lead of 1.7 points.
Competitive. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 98%.
Compared with the average
| PC | OLP | NDP | OTH | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Newmarket—Aurora | 45.7% | 45.0% | 7.2% | 1.4% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 41.6%+4.1 | 32.5%+12.5 | 20.3%−13.1 | 3.0%−1.5 |
Simple average of the 124 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Current member
Dawn Gallagher Murphy · PC
Previous election (2025)
The PC Party won by 6.0 points, with 43.8% turnout.
Our current projection: the PC Party ahead by 1.7 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dawn Gallagher Murphy Elected | PC | 20,260 | 47.6 |
| Chris Ballard | OLP | 17,723 | 41.6 |
| Denis Heng | NDP | 2,709 | 6.4 |
| David Jakubiec | GP | 1,088 | 2.6 |
| Shirin Khasbakhi | OTH | 536 | 1.3 |
| Yuri Duboisky | OTH | 286 | 0.7 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill PC, safe seat
- King—Vaughan PC, safe seat
- Richmond Hill PC, safe seat
- Markham—Stouffville PC, toss-up
- Markham—Unionville PC, safe seat
- Thornhill PC, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated