Richmond Hill
Provincial riding · Ontario · Greater Toronto (905)
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the PC Party a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 16.0 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| PC | OLP | NDP | OTH | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Richmond Hill | 53.6% | 37.6% | 6.6% | 1.3% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 41.6%+11.9 | 32.5%+5.2 | 20.3%−13.7 | 3.0%−1.7 |
Simple average of the 124 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Current member
Daisy Wai · PC
Previous election (2025)
The PC Party won by 21.2 points, with 35.6% turnout.
Our current projection: the PC Party ahead by 16.0 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Daisy Wai Elected | PC | 17,061 | 55.4 |
| Roozbeh Farhadi | OLP | 10,546 | 34.3 |
| Raymond Bhushan | NDP | 1,771 | 5.8 |
| Alison Lam | GP | 883 | 2.9 |
| Allison Bruns | OTH | 519 | 1.7 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Thornhill PC, safe seat
- Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill PC, safe seat
- Willowdale OLP, toss-up
- Don Valley North OLP, safe seat
- Markham—Thornhill PC, safe seat
- Markham—Unionville PC, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated