Willowdale
Provincial riding · Ontario · City of Toronto
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Ontario Liberals a 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 5.7 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 36%.
Compared with the average
| OLP | PC | NDP | OTH | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Willowdale | 48.8% | 43.1% | 6.5% | 1.1% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 32.5%+16.3 | 41.6%+1.5 | 20.3%−13.9 | 3.0%−1.9 |
Simple average of the 124 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Current member
Hon. Stan Cho · PC
Previous election (2025)
The PC Party won by 1.9 points, with 37.5% turnout.
Our current projection: the Ontario Liberals ahead by 5.7 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stan Cho Elected | PC | 14,476 | 46.3 |
| Paul Saguil | OLP | 13,871 | 44.4 |
| Boris Ivanov | NDP | 1,705 | 5.5 |
| Sharolyn Vettese | GP | 778 | 2.5 |
| Lilya Eklishaeva | IND | 222 | 0.7 |
| Pit Goyal | OTH | 221 | 0.7 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- York Centre PC, safe seat
- Eglinton—Lawrence OLP, competitive
- Don Valley North OLP, safe seat
- Thornhill PC, safe seat
- Don Valley West OLP, safe seat
- Toronto—St. Paul's OLP, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated