Thornhill
Provincial riding · Ontario
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the PC Party a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 29.2 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| PC | OLP | NDP | OTH | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thornhill | 60.8% | 31.6% | 5.7% | 1.4% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 41.6%+19.2 | 32.5%−0.9 | 20.3%−14.6 | 3.0%−1.5 |
Simple average of the 124 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Current member
Laura Smith · PC
Previous election (2025)
The PC Party won by 35.7 points, with 39.9% turnout.
Our current projection: the PC Party ahead by 29.2 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Laura Smith Elected | PC | 22,829 | 64.0 |
| Ben Dooley | OLP | 10,105 | 28.3 |
| Faiz Qureshi | NDP | 1,282 | 3.6 |
| Marcelo Levy | GP | 768 | 2.2 |
| Luca Mele | OTH | 523 | 1.5 |
| Aleksei Polyakov | OTH | 170 | 0.5 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Willowdale OLP, toss-up
- York Centre PC, safe seat
- Richmond Hill PC, safe seat
- Humber River—Black Creek NDP, toss-up
- Eglinton—Lawrence OLP, competitive
- Don Valley North OLP, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated