Humber River—Black Creek
Provincial riding · Ontario · City of Toronto
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the NDP a 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 4.2 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 69%.
Compared with the average
| NDP | OLP | PC | OTH | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Humber River—Black Creek | 36.4% | 31.5% | 31.2% | 0.9% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 20.3%+16.0 | 32.5%−0.9 | 41.6%−10.5 | 3.0%−2.1 |
Simple average of the 124 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Current member
Tom Rakocevic · NDP
Previous election (2025)
The NDP won by 0.8 points, with 34.7% turnout.
Our current projection: the NDP ahead by 4.2 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Rakocevic Elected | NDP | 8,788 | 35.3 |
| Paul Nguyen | PC | 8,595 | 34.6 |
| Liban Hassan | OLP | 6,811 | 27.4 |
| Alexander Qanbery | GP | 402 | 1.6 |
| Jeanne Mcguire | OTH | 280 | 1.1 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Etobicoke North PC, safe seat
- York South—Weston OLP, competitive
- York Centre PC, safe seat
- Vaughan—Woodbridge PC, safe seat
- Thornhill PC, safe seat
- Etobicoke Centre OLP, toss-up
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated