Etobicoke Centre
Provincial riding · Ontario · City of Toronto
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Ontario Liberals a 74% chance of winning, with an average lead of 2.0 points.
Competitive. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 97%.
Compared with the average
| OLP | PC | NDP | OTH | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Etobicoke Centre | 46.3% | 45.1% | 5.7% | 2.7% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 32.5%+13.9 | 41.6%+3.4 | 20.3%−14.7 | 3.0%−0.3 |
Simple average of the 124 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Current member
Hon. Kinga Surma · PC
Previous election (2025)
The PC Party won by 6.3 points, with 48.1% turnout.
Our current projection: the Ontario Liberals ahead by 2.0 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kinga Surma Elected | PC | 22,261 | 48.1 |
| John Campbell | OLP | 19,358 | 41.8 |
| Giulia Volpe | NDP | 2,151 | 4.6 |
| Brian Morris | GP | 1,000 | 2.2 |
| Mario Bilusic | OTH | 658 | 1.4 |
| Paul Fromm | OTH | 479 | 1.0 |
| Richard M. Kiernicki | OTH | 192 | 0.4 |
| Signe Miranda | OTH | 180 | 0.4 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Etobicoke—Lakeshore OLP, safe seat
- Mississauga East—Cooksville OLP, toss-up
- Etobicoke North PC, safe seat
- York South—Weston OLP, competitive
- Mississauga—Lakeshore OLP, toss-up
- Parkdale—High Park NDP, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated