Mississauga—Lakeshore
Provincial riding · Ontario · Greater Toronto (905)
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Ontario Liberals a 76% chance of winning, with an average lead of 2.0 points.
Competitive. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 98%.
Compared with the average
| OLP | PC | NDP | OTH | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mississauga—Lakeshore | 47.1% | 45.7% | 5.4% | 1.3% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 32.5%+14.6 | 41.6%+4.1 | 20.3%−14.9 | 3.0%−1.6 |
Simple average of the 124 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Current member
Rudy Cuzzetto · PC
Previous election (2025)
The PC Party won by 3.9 points, with 46.2% turnout.
Our current projection: the Ontario Liberals ahead by 2.0 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rudy Cuzzetto Elected | PC | 20,586 | 47.5 |
| Elizabeth Mendes | OLP | 18,915 | 43.7 |
| Spencer Yang Ki | NDP | 1,974 | 4.6 |
| Julia Budahazy | GP | 1,041 | 2.4 |
| Renata Cynarska | OTH | 549 | 1.3 |
| Ayoub Bumbia | IND | 123 | 0.3 |
| Oleksii Avdeiev | OTH | 113 | 0.3 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Mississauga East—Cooksville OLP, toss-up
- Etobicoke—Lakeshore OLP, safe seat
- Mississauga Centre PC, toss-up
- Etobicoke Centre OLP, toss-up
- Mississauga—Erin Mills OLP, toss-up
- Mississauga—Malton PC, competitive
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated