Democrats are favoured for the House at 96%, and for the Senate at 66%.
House, Senate and governors, all decided on November 3, 2026, projected from public polls.
The forecasts
| Race | Democrats | Republicans | Chance of a Democratic majority |
|---|---|---|---|
| House of Representatives435 seats | 235 | 200 | 96% |
| Senate100 seats, including 1 independent or other | 52 | 47 | 66% |
| GovernorsAll 50 states; 36 races on the ballot, 19 open seats. | 26 | 24 | — |
Before November 3
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Primaries 2026
452 nominations settled · 12 races still awaiting official results.
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FL‑20: a vacant seat
Florida never called a special election and, weeks before the general election, is unlikely to: the seat should stay vacant until the November 3 winner is sworn in in January.
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TX‑23: a vacant seat
Texas never called a special election and, weeks before the general election, is unlikely to: the seat should stay vacant until the November 3 winner is sworn in in January.
Special elections already decided (5)
- Blair won. We had Scott. · August 25, 2026
- Wahab won CA‑14. · August 18, 2026
- Gallagher cleared 50%. No runoff. · June 2, 2026
- NJ-11 result archive. · April 16, 2026
- Fuller won. We called it. · April 7, 2026
The indexes
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Lame-Duck Index
How much weight the president has left before the midterms.
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U.S. Latino Radar
The House and Senate races where Latino electoral weight, competitiveness, and control of Congress intersect — ranked on a 100-point scale.
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Canada–U.S. trade war
The balance of power between Ottawa and Washington.
Beyond 2026
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The 2028 presidential race
The candidates in both parties and the electoral-college map.
Prediction markets
In this desk
In this section
- President
Electoral college, 270 to win, and the invisible primary in both parties.
- House
All 435 districts, redistricting included, through the 2026 midterms.
- Senate
The seats up in 2026 and the arithmetic of control.
- Primaries
The 2026 primary results, county by county.
- Latino Radar
Where the Latino vote is moving, district by district.
- Lame-Duck Index
How much presidential weight is left before the midterms.
Methodology after the signal
How the U.S. forecasts are built
Each forecast starts from public polls, corrected for each pollster’s usual lean, then simulates the election district by district and state by state.
- House polls feed a model that follows the national vote over time; the Senate and governors are modelled race by race, from state polls and the national climate.
- All races move together when the national mood shifts; that is what produces the seat ranges.
- A recent local poll pulls its own race toward it; polls more than 180 days old are left out.
- The Lame-Duck Index combines presidential approval, the economy, district margins and prediction markets into a score out of 100.
- Polymarket prices are shown next to our forecasts. They do not enter our calculations.