California’s 48th District
U.S. House · CA-48
Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Democrats a 92% chance of winning, with an average lead of 11.9 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 19%.
Compared with the average
| Democrat | Republican | |
|---|---|---|
| CA-48 | 55.6% | 44.4% |
| National averageUnited States | 54.5%+1.1 | 44.2%+0.2 |
Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Polls in this district
4 polls
Each poll as the pollster published it; these are not the Vote-Scope projection. When a pollster tests several ballots (with or without a given candidate), each one is shown as a scenario.
Current member
Issa, Darrell · Republican
Primary results
| Top-two primary | Jim Desmond · Advanced to the general election | 38.9% | 73,508 votes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Top-two primary | Marni von Wilpert · Advanced to the general election | 20.8% | 39,327 votes |
Democrat 
Republican Previous election (2024)
The Republicans won by 14.9 points.
Our current projection: the Democrats ahead by 11.9 points.
Where these voters came from
This district was redrawn in the 2025-2026 redistricting. Share of its voters from each former district:
- Former district 48 71%
- Former district 41 23%
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated