California’s 40th District
U.S. House · CA-40
Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Republicans a 60% chance of winning, with an average lead of 6.8 points.
Competitive. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 45%.
Compared with the average
| Republican | Democrat | |
|---|---|---|
| CA-40 | 51.0% | 49.0% |
| National averageUnited States | 44.2%+6.8 | 54.5%−5.5 |
Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Polls in this district
4 polls, 5 scenarios
Each poll as the pollster published it; these are not the Vote-Scope projection. When a pollster tests several ballots (with or without a given candidate), each one is shown as a scenario.
Current member
Ken Calvert · Republican
Primary results
| Top-two primary | Ken Calvert · Advanced to the general election | 34.9% | 75,811 votes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Top-two primary | Young Kim · Advanced to the general election | 20.6% | 44,818 votes |
Republican Previous election (2024)
The Republicans won by 8.8 points.
Our current projection: the Republicans ahead by 6.8 points.
Where these voters came from
This district was redrawn in the 2025-2026 redistricting. Share of its voters from each former district:
- Former district 41 46%
- Former district 40 31%
- Former district 48 21%
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated