Labour leads in votes and in seats.
We project all 650 Westminster constituencies one by one, from polls corrected for each pollster’s usual lean.
Today: Labour leads with 26.5% of the vote and 227 projected seats.
| Party | Projected seats | Vote share |
|---|---|---|
| Labour | 227 | 26.5% |
| Conservative | 135 | 22.1% |
| Reform UK | 133 | 22.0% |
| Liberal Democrat | 72 | 10.3% |
| Green | 5 | 9.9% |
326 seats for a majority, out of 650 · Forecast of October 15, 2026 · 641 polls
Commons today — 634 of 650 GB seats tracked
By-elections
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Labour has to defend Starmer’s seat without Starmer.
No local poll exists yet, so we give a range rather than a single number. Labour is projected at 36.6% (between 28.7% and 44.3%) and holds the seat in 74.4% of simulations; the Greens are at 29.6% with a 25.6% chance of winning it. In 2024 the runner-up here was not a Conservative but an independent, on 18.9%. If Green leader Zack Polanski stands, Labour’s chance of holding the seat falls to under 1%. No other unknown moves this race as much.
2026 by-elections already decided
In the news
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Starmer has left the Commons — six weeks after leaving Downing Street.
Keir Starmer stood down as MP for Holborn and St Pancras on 1 September, saying it was time to step aside for international work. Andy Burnham had already replaced him as prime minister on 20 July, with Healey at the Treasury, Streeting at Defence and Rayner back at Housing. Two things follow: the Commons has a vacancy again, and the model now reads Labour through a leader it has only a few months of polling on.
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Farage is filmed celebrating a secret foreign-funded polling scheme. Could Clacton vote again?
According to Channel 4 News and the investigative group Verbatim, senior Reform UK figures had three polls paid for by a US company and published as independent. Reform UK and Mr Farage deny all the allegations, and no charge has been laid. We have modelled the steps of a possible recall and the candidacies the race could see.
In this desk
In this section
- General election
All 650 constituencies, checked against the large published constituency polls.
- Clacton by-election
Nigel Farage held Clacton in the 13 August by-election.
Methodology after the signal
How we forecast the United Kingdom
Each seat is projected separately: tactical voting, regional swings and the rise of smaller parties move individual seats in ways national polls do not show.
- Polls are combined in a model that follows each party over time, with regional adjustments.
- We then simulate the election thousands of times to get seat ranges and each seat’s chances.
- The Commons composition includes by-elections already decided and current vacancies, not only the 2024 result.
- By-elections have their own model. With no local poll in Holborn and St Pancras yet, it gives ranges and candidacy scenarios rather than a single number.