U.K. General Election
Leading: Labour, with 227 of 650 projected seats and a 1% chance of a majority.
Seat forecast
| Party | Projected seats | Range | Chance of finishing first |
|---|---|---|---|
| Labour | 227 | 195–274 | 97% |
| Conservative | 135 | 103–168 | <1% |
| Reform UK | 134 | 86–179 | 3% |
| Liberal Democrat | 71 | 70–73 | <1% |
| SNP | 45 | 42–46 | <1% |
| Other | 9 | 9–10 | <1% |
| Plaid Cymru | 8 | 7–10 | <1% |
326 seats for a majority, out of 650 · 641 polls, 50,000 simulations
Median of the 50,000 simulations: Labour 219 · Conservative 133. The large figures count the seats where each party is favoured. The median also counts its chances where it is not; it is the figure most models show, including The Economist.
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
Current House of Commons Composition
Seats — 650 total
- Labour 409
- Conservative 122
- Liberal Democrat 72
- SNP 8
- Other 8
- Green 5
- Reform UK 5
- Plaid Cymru 4
- Vacant 1
Projected vote share
| Party | Vote | 7-day change | Chance of finishing first |
|---|---|---|---|
| Labour | 26.5% | — | 97% |
| Other | 5.3% | — | <1% |
| Conservative | 22.1% | — | 1% |
| Reform UK | 22.0% | — | 3% |
| Liberal Democrat | 10.3% | — | <1% |
| SNP | 2.9% | — | <1% |
| Plaid Cymru | 0.9% | — | <1% |
| Sinn Féin | 0.7% | — | <1% |
| Green | 9.9% | — | <1% |
| DUP | 0.6% | — | <1% |
| SDLP | 0.3% | — | <1% |
| Alliance | 0.4% | — | <1% |
| UUP | 0.3% | — | <1% |
Analysis
Vote intention
Raw polls (dots) and model estimate (diamonds) with 95% confidence interval.
Scenario probabilities
Across 50,000 simulations of the election.
Constituency map
Colour shows the leading party; the shade, how settled the race is.
All constituencies
All 650 constituencies, sortable by leading party, margin and chance.
| Constituency | Nation | Leading | Vote | Margin | Chance | vs 2024 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Birmingham Hall Green and Moseley | England | Labour | 0.0% | 1.2 pts | 50% | New |
| Hertford and Stortford | England | Reform UK | 0.0% | 1.4 pts | 44% | New |
| Romsey and Southampton North | England | Conservative | 0.0% | 1.4 pts | 54% | New |
| North East Derbyshire | England | Conservative | 0.0% | 1.4 pts | 46% | New |
| South Norfolk | England | Conservative | 0.0% | 1.4 pts | 50% | New |
| Rugby | England | Labour | 0.0% | 1.4 pts | 42% | New |
| Swindon North | England | Reform UK | 0.0% | 1.5 pts | 59% | New |
| North East Somerset and Hanham | England | Labour | 0.0% | 1.5 pts | 46% | New |
| Suffolk Coastal | England | Reform UK | 0.0% | 1.5 pts | 51% | New |
| Forest of Dean | England | Reform UK | 0.0% | 1.5 pts | 54% | New |
| North East Cambridgeshire | England | Reform UK | 0.0% | 1.5 pts | 51% | New |
| Mid Norfolk | England | Conservative | 0.0% | 1.5 pts | 50% | New |
| Broadland and Fakenham | England | Reform UK | 0.0% | 1.5 pts | 55% | New |
| West Suffolk | England | Reform UK | 0.0% | 1.5 pts | 53% | New |
| Brigg and Immingham | England | Conservative | 0.0% | 1.5 pts | 52% | New |
| Harwich and North Essex | England | Conservative | 0.0% | 1.5 pts | 52% | New |
| North West Cambridgeshire | England | Conservative | 0.0% | 1.5 pts | 53% | New |
| Gloucester | England | Reform UK | 0.0% | 1.5 pts | 49% | New |
| Southend West and Leigh | England | Reform UK | 0.0% | 1.5 pts | 62% | New |
| Rother Valley | England | Conservative | 0.0% | 1.5 pts | 63% | New |
| Pendle and Clitheroe | England | Reform UK | 0.0% | 1.5 pts | 65% | New |
| Braintree | England | Reform UK | 0.0% | 1.5 pts | 60% | New |
| South Holland and The Deepings | England | Reform UK | 0.0% | 1.6 pts | 61% | New |
| Huddersfield | England | Green | 0.0% | 1.6 pts | 56% | New |
| Bognor Regis and Littlehampton | England | Reform UK | 0.0% | 1.6 pts | 62% | New |
| Romford | England | Conservative | 0.0% | 1.6 pts | 61% | New |
| Morecambe and Lunesdale | England | Reform UK | 0.0% | 1.6 pts | 54% | New |
| Penrith and Solway | England | Labour | 0.0% | 1.6 pts | 58% | New |
| Crawley | England | Labour | 0.0% | 1.6 pts | 51% | New |
| Bolton West | England | Labour | 0.0% | 1.6 pts | 50% | New |
| Birmingham Yardley | England | Labour | 0.0% | 1.6 pts | 55% | New |
| Camborne and Redruth | England | Reform UK | 0.0% | 1.6 pts | 52% | New |
| Derby South | England | Labour | 0.0% | 1.6 pts | 52% | New |
| Halifax | England | Labour | 0.0% | 1.6 pts | 53% | New |
| Dunstable and Leighton Buzzard | England | Conservative | 0.0% | 1.6 pts | 67% | New |
| Hartlepool | England | Labour | 0.0% | 1.6 pts | 52% | New |
| Bolton South and Walkden | England | Labour | 0.0% | 1.6 pts | 53% | New |
| Stockton North | England | Labour | 0.0% | 1.6 pts | 51% | New |
| Rawmarsh and Conisbrough | England | Labour | 0.0% | 1.6 pts | 52% | New |
| Birmingham Erdington | England | Labour | 0.0% | 1.6 pts | 53% | New |
| Oldham West, Chadderton and Royton | England | Reform UK | 0.0% | 1.7 pts | 59% | New |
| Clwyd East | Wales | Conservative | 0.0% | 1.7 pts | 65% | New |
| Selby | England | Reform UK | 0.0% | 1.7 pts | 60% | New |
| Dagenham and Rainham | England | Labour | 0.0% | 1.7 pts | 60% | New |
| Bournemouth West | England | Reform UK | 0.0% | 1.7 pts | 64% | New |
| Stevenage | England | Labour | 0.0% | 1.7 pts | 60% | New |
| Inverness, Skye and West Ross-shire | Scotland | SNP | 0.0% | 1.7 pts | 90% | New |
| Darlington | England | Labour | 0.0% | 1.7 pts | 54% | New |
| Merthyr Tydfil and Aberdare | Wales | Reform UK | 0.0% | 1.7 pts | 45% | New |
| Gainsborough | England | Reform UK | 0.0% | 1.7 pts | 71% | New |
Can Prime Minister Andy Burnham rebuild Labour before Reform converts protest into seats?
The change of prime minister has not yet changed the seat count. Any “Burnham bounce” must persist across several polls and translate unevenly across constituencies before the model should move.
How we got here
Labour’s 2024 landslide rested on extraordinary seat efficiency and a fragmented opposition. Reform’s rise then challenged Labour in many of the places where Burnham’s northern and communitarian profile is strongest.
Labour elected Burnham leader on 16 July 2026; he became prime minister on 20 July and formed a new cabinet. That is a major regime change whose constituency effect remains an empirical question.
What just changed
20 JUL 2026
Burnham forms a new government
John Healey moved to the Treasury, Wes Streeting to Defence, Angela Rayner returned to Housing and Miatta Fahnbulleh took Energy. The reset can affect Labour–Reform contests, but Clacton remains chiefly a test of Reform’s organization and Farage’s hold.
Wait for several post-transition polls before treating any bounce as durable.
What can still change the race
- The size and durability of Labour’s post-transition polling movement.
- Whether gains occur in Labour–Reform contests rather than only against Conservatives or Greens.
- The cabinet’s fiscal choices and capacity to turn Burnham’s regional appeal into a national coalition.