Bury St Edmunds and Stowmarket
Westminster constituency · England · East of England
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives Reform UK a 91% chance of winning, with an average lead of 2.7 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 91%.
Compared with the average
| Reform UK | Conservative | Labour | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bury St Edmunds and Stowmarket | 28.5% | 26.0% | 20.2% | 15.0% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 23.1%+5.5 | 20.4%+5.5 | 24.3%−4.1 | 10.4%+4.6 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 103,768 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 44 |
| Employment rate | 69.5% |
Current member
Peter Prinsley · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 2.9 points.
Our current projection: Reform UK ahead by 2.7 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Peter Prinsley Elected | Labour | 16,745 | 32.9 |
| Will Tanner | Conservative | 15,293 | 30.0 |
| Scott Hussey | Reform UK | 8,595 | 16.9 |
| Emma Buckmaster | Green | 5,761 | 11.3 |
| Peter McDonald | Lib Dems | 3,154 | 6.2 |
| Jeremy Lee | Other | 819 | 1.6 |
| Richard Baker-Howard | Other | 350 | 0.7 |
| Darren Turner | Other | 176 | 0.3 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- West Suffolk Reform UK, toss-up
- South West Norfolk Reform UK, safe seat
- Colchester Labour, toss-up
- Ipswich Labour, toss-up
- Braintree Reform UK, toss-up
- South Suffolk Conservative, toss-up
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated