Colchester
Westminster constituency · England · East of England
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives Labour a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 3.1 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 82%.
Compared with the average
| Labour | Reform UK | Conservative | Lib Dems | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colchester | 28.6% | 25.5% | 20.0% | 13.3% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 24.3%+4.3 | 23.1%+2.4 | 20.4%−0.4 | 10.3%+3.0 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 115,314 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 36 |
| Employment rate | 78.3% |
Current member
Pam Cox · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 18.4 points.
Our current projection: Labour ahead by 3.1 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pam Cox Elected | Labour | 18,804 | 41.9 |
| James Cracknell | Conservative | 10,554 | 23.5 |
| Terence Longstaff | Reform UK | 6,664 | 14.8 |
| Martin Goss | Lib Dems | 6,393 | 14.2 |
| Sara Ruth | Green | 2,414 | 5.4 |
| James Rolfe | Other | 74 | 0.2 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Harwich and North Essex Conservative, toss-up
- Clacton Reform UK, safe seat
- South Suffolk Conservative, toss-up
- Witham Conservative, toss-up
- Ipswich Labour, toss-up
- Southend East and Rochford Reform UK, toss-up
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated