Portsmouth North
Westminster constituency · England · South East
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives Reform UK a 91% chance of winning, with an average lead of 2.7 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 91%.
Compared with the average
| Reform UK | Conservative | Labour | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Portsmouth North | 30.7% | 28.1% | 23.1% | 8.3% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 23.1%+7.6 | 20.4%+7.7 | 24.3%−1.2 | 10.4%−2.1 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 100,849 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 39 |
| Employment rate | 79.1% |
Current member
Amanda Martin · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 1.9 points.
Our current projection: Reform UK ahead by 2.7 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Amanda Martin Elected | Labour | 14,495 | 34.9 |
| Penny Mordaunt | Conservative | 13,715 | 33.0 |
| Melvyn Todd | Reform UK | 8,501 | 20.4 |
| Simon Dodd | Lib Dems | 3,031 | 7.3 |
| Duncan Robinson | Green | 1,851 | 4.5 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Gosport Conservative, safe seat
- Fareham and Waterlooville Conservative, toss-up
- Portsmouth South Labour, safe seat
- Havant Reform UK, toss-up
- Isle of Wight East Reform UK, toss-up
- Hamble Valley Conservative, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated