Gosport
Westminster constituency · England · South East
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Conservatives a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 8.2 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 4%.
Compared with the average
| Conservative | Reform UK | Labour | Lib Dems | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gosport | 35.8% | 27.6% | 17.4% | 8.1% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 20.4%+15.4 | 23.1%+4.6 | 24.3%−6.8 | 10.3%−2.2 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 96,807 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 45 |
| Employment rate | 73.1% |
Current member
Dame Caroline Dinenage · Conservative
Previous election (2024)
The Conservatives won by 13.7 points.
Our current projection: the Conservatives ahead by 8.2 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Caroline Dinenage Elected | Conservative | 17,830 | 40.3 |
| Edward Batterbury | Labour | 11,776 | 26.6 |
| Matt Mulliss | Reform UK | 7,983 | 18.0 |
| Tim Bearder | Lib Dems | 4,039 | 9.1 |
| Tony Sudworth | Green | 1,948 | 4.4 |
| Jeff Roberts | Other | 334 | 0.8 |
| Lisa Englefield | Other | 319 | 0.7 |
| Dave Watson | Other | 48 | 0.1 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Portsmouth North Reform UK, toss-up
- Fareham and Waterlooville Conservative, toss-up
- Portsmouth South Labour, safe seat
- Hamble Valley Conservative, safe seat
- Havant Reform UK, toss-up
- Isle of Wight East Reform UK, toss-up
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated