Dartford
Westminster constituency · England · South East
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives Reform UK a 77% chance of winning, with an average lead of 1.9 points.
Competitive. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 98%.
Compared with the average
| Reform UK | Conservative | Labour | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dartford | 29.9% | 28.5% | 24.4% | 10.5% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 23.1%+6.9 | 20.4%+8.0 | 24.3%+0.1 | 10.4%+0.1 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 110,952 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 36 |
| Employment rate | 81.4% |
Current member
Jim Dickson · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 2.7 points.
Our current projection: Reform UK ahead by 1.9 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jim Dickson Elected | Labour | 15,392 | 34.6 |
| Gareth Johnson | Conservative | 14,200 | 31.9 |
| Lee Stranders | Reform UK | 9,523 | 21.4 |
| Laura Edie | Green | 3,189 | 7.2 |
| Kyle Marsh | Lib Dems | 2,184 | 4.9 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Bexleyheath and Crayford Reform UK, toss-up
- Thurrock Reform UK, competitive
- Sevenoaks Conservative, safe seat
- Dagenham and Rainham Labour, toss-up
- Old Bexley and Sidcup Conservative, competitive
- Erith and Thamesmead Labour, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated