Bexleyheath and Crayford
Westminster constituency · England · London
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives Reform UK a 95% chance of winning, with an average lead of 3.1 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 86%.
Compared with the average
| Reform UK | Conservative | Labour | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bexleyheath and Crayford | 31.2% | 28.1% | 25.0% | 8.6% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 23.1%+8.2 | 20.4%+7.7 | 24.3%+0.8 | 10.4%−1.8 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 99,481 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 39 |
| Employment rate | 79.5% |
Current member
Daniel Francis · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 4.9 points.
Our current projection: Reform UK ahead by 3.1 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel Francis Elected | Labour | 15,717 | 36.2 |
| Mark Brooks | Conservative | 13,603 | 31.3 |
| Tom Bright | Reform UK | 9,861 | 22.7 |
| David McBride | Lib Dems | 2,204 | 5.1 |
| George Edgar | Green | 2,076 | 4.8 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Dartford Reform UK, toss-up
- Dagenham and Rainham Labour, toss-up
- Erith and Thamesmead Labour, safe seat
- Old Bexley and Sidcup Conservative, competitive
- Thurrock Reform UK, competitive
- Hornchurch and Upminster Reform UK, toss-up
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated