Thurrock
Westminster constituency · England · East of England
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives Reform UK a 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 5.8 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 30%.
Compared with the average
| Reform UK | Labour | Conservative | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thurrock | 35.0% | 29.2% | 18.9% | 8.3% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 23.1%+12.0 | 24.3%+5.0 | 20.4%−1.5 | 10.4%−2.1 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 121,226 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 35 |
| Employment rate | 71.7% |
Current member
Jen Craft · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 17.2 points.
Our current projection: Reform UK ahead by 5.8 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jen Craft Elected | Labour | 16,050 | 42.7 |
| Sophie Preston-Hall | Reform UK | 9,576 | 25.5 |
| Jacqueline Doyle-Price | Conservative | 8,009 | 21.3 |
| Eugene McCarthy | Green | 1,632 | 4.3 |
| Michael Bukola | Lib Dems | 1,157 | 3.1 |
| Yousaff Khan | Other | 691 | 1.8 |
| Nimal Raj | Other | 443 | 1.2 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Dartford Reform UK, toss-up
- Hornchurch and Upminster Reform UK, toss-up
- Bexleyheath and Crayford Reform UK, toss-up
- Gravesham Reform UK, toss-up
- Dagenham and Rainham Labour, toss-up
- South Basildon and East Thurrock Reform UK, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated