Dagenham and Rainham
Westminster constituency · England · London
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives Labour a 60% chance of winning, with an average lead of 1.7 points.
Competitive. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 96%.
Compared with the average
| Labour | Reform UK | Conservative | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dagenham and Rainham | 32.1% | 31.2% | 16.5% | 13.6% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 24.3%+7.8 | 23.1%+8.1 | 20.4%−3.9 | 10.4%+3.2 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 120,583 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 35 |
| Employment rate | 81.5% |
Current member
Margaret Mullane · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 18.5 points.
Our current projection: Labour ahead by 1.7 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Margaret Mullane Elected | Labour | 16,571 | 42.6 |
| Kevin Godfrey | Reform UK | 9,398 | 24.2 |
| Sam Holland | Conservative | 6,926 | 17.8 |
| Kim Arrowsmith | Green | 4,184 | 10.8 |
| Francesca Flack | Lib Dems | 1,033 | 2.7 |
| Terence London | Other | 755 | 1.9 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Romford Conservative, toss-up
- Hornchurch and Upminster Reform UK, toss-up
- Bexleyheath and Crayford Reform UK, toss-up
- Erith and Thamesmead Labour, safe seat
- Barking Labour, safe seat
- Old Bexley and Sidcup Conservative, competitive
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated