Erith and Thamesmead
Westminster constituency · England · London
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives Labour a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 22.9 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Labour | Reform UK | Conservative | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Erith and Thamesmead | 43.9% | 21.0% | 13.4% | 12.2% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 24.3%+19.7 | 23.1%−2.1 | 20.4%−7.0 | 10.4%+1.8 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 134,250 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 35 |
| Employment rate | 72.3% |
Current member
Ms Abena Oppong-Asare · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 40.4 points.
Our current projection: Labour ahead by 22.9 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Abena Oppong-Asare Elected | Labour | 22,246 | 55.1 |
| Michael Pastor | Reform UK | 5,944 | 14.7 |
| Richard Mark | Conservative | 5,564 | 13.8 |
| Sarah Barry | Green | 3,482 | 8.6 |
| Pierce Chalmers | Lib Dems | 1,872 | 4.6 |
| Mohammed Abu Shahed | Other | 1,071 | 2.7 |
| Diana Diamond | Other | 200 | 0.5 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Old Bexley and Sidcup Conservative, competitive
- Barking Labour, safe seat
- Eltham and Chislehurst Labour, safe seat
- Bexleyheath and Crayford Reform UK, toss-up
- Dagenham and Rainham Labour, toss-up
- Ilford South Labour, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated