Eltham and Chislehurst
Westminster constituency · England · London
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives Labour a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 9.6 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Labour | Conservative | Reform UK | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eltham and Chislehurst | 33.8% | 23.8% | 23.0% | 10.4% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 24.3%+9.5 | 20.4%+3.4 | 23.1%−0.1 | 10.4% |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 111,055 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 39 |
| Employment rate | 70.8% |
Current member
Clive Efford · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 18.5 points.
Our current projection: Labour ahead by 9.6 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Clive Efford Elected | Labour | 20,069 | 44.0 |
| Charlie Davis | Conservative | 11,640 | 25.5 |
| Mark George Simpson | Reform UK | 7,428 | 16.3 |
| Sam Gabriel | Green | 3,079 | 6.8 |
| Ulysse Abbate | Lib Dems | 2,423 | 5.3 |
| Sean Ellis Stewart | Other | 356 | 0.8 |
| Arnold Tarling | Other | 307 | 0.7 |
| Christian Hacking | Other | 173 | 0.4 |
| John Courtneidge | Other | 91 | 0.2 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Lewisham East Labour, safe seat
- Old Bexley and Sidcup Conservative, competitive
- Erith and Thamesmead Labour, safe seat
- Lewisham North Labour, safe seat
- Greenwich and Woolwich Labour, safe seat
- Bromley and Biggin Hill Conservative, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated