Old Bexley and Sidcup
Westminster constituency · England · London
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Conservatives a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 6.1 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 28%.
Compared with the average
| Conservative | Reform UK | Labour | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Old Bexley and Sidcup | 35.0% | 28.9% | 21.2% | 8.1% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 20.4%+14.6 | 23.1%+5.8 | 24.3%−3.1 | 10.4%−2.3 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 101,531 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 41 |
| Employment rate | 85.4% |
Current member
Mr Louie French · Conservative
Previous election (2024)
The Conservatives won by 7.5 points.
Our current projection: the Conservatives ahead by 6.1 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Louie French Elected | Conservative | 17,910 | 37.6 |
| Edward Jones | Labour | 14,362 | 30.2 |
| Maxine Fothergill | Reform UK | 10,384 | 21.8 |
| Brad Davies | Green | 2,601 | 5.5 |
| Adrian Hyyrylainen-Trett | Lib Dems | 1,927 | 4.1 |
| Laurent Williams | Other | 251 | 0.5 |
| Andrew Still | Other | 198 | 0.4 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Erith and Thamesmead Labour, safe seat
- Eltham and Chislehurst Labour, safe seat
- Bexleyheath and Crayford Reform UK, toss-up
- Orpington Conservative, safe seat
- Barking Labour, safe seat
- Dagenham and Rainham Labour, toss-up
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated