Orpington
Westminster constituency · England · London
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Conservatives a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 10.8 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Conservative | Reform UK | Labour | Lib Dems | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Orpington | 36.3% | 25.5% | 18.4% | 9.6% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 20.4%+15.9 | 23.1%+2.5 | 24.3%−5.9 | 10.3%−0.7 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 98,217 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 42 |
| Employment rate | 88.5% |
Current member
Gareth Bacon · Conservative
Previous election (2024)
The Conservatives won by 11.1 points.
Our current projection: the Conservatives ahead by 10.8 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gareth Bacon Elected | Conservative | 17,504 | 38.0 |
| Ju Owens | Labour | 12,386 | 26.9 |
| Mark James | Reform UK | 8,896 | 19.3 |
| Graeme Casey | Lib Dems | 4,728 | 10.3 |
| Seamus McCauley | Green | 2,319 | 5.0 |
| John Bright | Other | 240 | 0.5 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Bromley and Biggin Hill Conservative, safe seat
- Old Bexley and Sidcup Conservative, competitive
- Eltham and Chislehurst Labour, safe seat
- Sevenoaks Conservative, safe seat
- Lewisham East Labour, safe seat
- Beckenham and Penge Labour, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated