Sevenoaks
Westminster constituency · England · South East
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Conservatives a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 8.6 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 2%.
Compared with the average
| Conservative | Reform UK | Lib Dems | Labour | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sevenoaks | 33.7% | 25.2% | 22.2% | 9.0% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 20.4%+13.3 | 23.1%+2.1 | 10.3%+11.9 | 24.3%−15.3 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 99,985 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 44 |
| Employment rate | 81.6% |
Current member
Laura Trott · Conservative
Previous election (2024)
The Conservatives won by 10.9 points.
Our current projection: the Conservatives ahead by 8.6 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Laura Trott Elected | Conservative | 18,328 | 36.7 |
| Richard Streatfeild | Lib Dems | 12,888 | 25.8 |
| James Milmine | Reform UK | 9,341 | 18.7 |
| Denise Scott-McDonald | Labour | 6,802 | 13.6 |
| Laura Manston | Green | 2,033 | 4.1 |
| Elwyn Jones | Other | 298 | 0.6 |
| Adam Hibbert | Other | 209 | 0.4 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Orpington Conservative, safe seat
- Tonbridge Conservative, safe seat
- Dartford Reform UK, toss-up
- Bexleyheath and Crayford Reform UK, toss-up
- Old Bexley and Sidcup Conservative, competitive
- Erith and Thamesmead Labour, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated