Tonbridge
Westminster constituency · England · South East
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Conservatives a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 13.3 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Conservative | Reform UK | Green | Labour | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tonbridge | 36.9% | 23.6% | 16.5% | 11.8% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 20.4%+16.5 | 23.1%+0.5 | 10.4%+6.1 | 24.3%−12.4 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 97,582 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 44 |
| Employment rate | 81.9% |
Current member
Tom Tugendhat · Conservative
Previous election (2024)
The Conservatives won by 22.2 points.
Our current projection: the Conservatives ahead by 13.3 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Tugendhat Elected | Conservative | 20,517 | 40.8 |
| Lewis Bailey | Labour | 9,351 | 18.6 |
| Anna Cope | Green | 7,596 | 15.1 |
| Teresa Hansford | Reform UK | 7,548 | 15.0 |
| John Woollcombe | Lib Dems | 4,234 | 8.4 |
| Tim Shaw | Other | 926 | 1.8 |
| Ian Grattidge | Other | 156 | 0.3 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Sevenoaks Conservative, safe seat
- Dartford Reform UK, toss-up
- Tunbridge Wells Lib Dems, safe seat
- Gravesham Reform UK, toss-up
- Chatham and Aylesford Reform UK, safe seat
- Orpington Conservative, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated