Gravesham
Westminster constituency · England · South East
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives Reform UK a 89% chance of winning, with an average lead of 2.5 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 94%.
Compared with the average
| Reform UK | Conservative | Labour | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gravesham | 30.7% | 28.3% | 25.3% | 9.2% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 23.1%+7.7 | 20.4%+7.9 | 24.3%+1.0 | 10.4%−1.2 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 106,970 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 39 |
| Employment rate | 65.5% |
Current member
Dr Lauren Sullivan · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 6.3 points.
Our current projection: Reform UK ahead by 2.5 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lauren Sullivan Elected | Labour | 16,623 | 38.5 |
| Adam Holloway | Conservative | 13,911 | 32.2 |
| Matthew Fraser Moat | Reform UK | 8,910 | 20.6 |
| Rebecca Hopkins | Green | 2,254 | 5.2 |
| Ukonu Obasi | Lib Dems | 1,534 | 3.5 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Chatham and Aylesford Reform UK, safe seat
- South Basildon and East Thurrock Reform UK, safe seat
- Thurrock Reform UK, competitive
- Maidstone and Malling Conservative, toss-up
- Dartford Reform UK, toss-up
- Castle Point Reform UK, toss-up
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated