Maidstone and Malling
Westminster constituency · England · South East
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Conservatives a 76% chance of winning, with an average lead of 1.9 points.
Competitive. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 97%.
Compared with the average
| Conservative | Reform UK | Labour | Lib Dems | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maidstone and Malling | 28.0% | 26.7% | 19.6% | 12.6% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 20.4%+7.6 | 23.1%+3.6 | 24.3%−4.7 | 10.3%+2.3 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 111,004 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 39 |
| Employment rate | 80.6% |
Current member
Helen Grant · Conservative
Previous election (2024)
The Conservatives won by 3.6 points.
Our current projection: the Conservatives ahead by 1.9 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Helen Grant Elected | Conservative | 14,146 | 30.5 |
| Maureen Cleator | Labour | 12,472 | 26.9 |
| Paul Thomas | Reform UK | 9,316 | 20.1 |
| David Naghi | Lib Dems | 6,375 | 13.7 |
| Stuart Jeffery | Green | 3,727 | 8.0 |
| Yolande Kenward | Other | 197 | 0.4 |
| Gary Butler | Other | 156 | 0.3 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Chatham and Aylesford Reform UK, safe seat
- Rochester and Strood Reform UK, competitive
- Gravesham Reform UK, toss-up
- Gillingham and Rainham Reform UK, toss-up
- South Basildon and East Thurrock Reform UK, safe seat
- Tunbridge Wells Lib Dems, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated