Gillingham and Rainham
Westminster constituency · England · South East
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives Reform UK a 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 5.2 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 44%.
Compared with the average
| Reform UK | Labour | Conservative | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gillingham and Rainham | 31.1% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 10.1% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 23.1%+8.0 | 24.3%+0.8 | 20.4%+4.6 | 10.4%−0.3 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 103,259 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 39 |
| Employment rate | 80.2% |
Current member
Naushabah Khan · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 9.7 points.
Our current projection: Reform UK ahead by 5.2 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Naushabah Khan Elected | Labour | 15,562 | 37.8 |
| Rehman Chishti | Conservative | 11,590 | 28.2 |
| Rizvi Rawoof | Reform UK | 8,792 | 21.4 |
| Kate Belmonte | Green | 2,318 | 5.6 |
| Stuart Bourne | Lib Dems | 2,248 | 5.5 |
| Peter Cook | Other | 344 | 0.8 |
| Roger Peacock | Other | 175 | 0.4 |
| Peter Wheeler | Other | 111 | 0.3 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Rochester and Strood Reform UK, competitive
- Southend West and Leigh Reform UK, toss-up
- Maidstone and Malling Conservative, toss-up
- Castle Point Reform UK, toss-up
- Chatham and Aylesford Reform UK, safe seat
- South Basildon and East Thurrock Reform UK, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated