Southend West and Leigh
Westminster constituency · England · East of England
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives Reform UK a 62% chance of winning, with an average lead of 1.5 points.
Competitive. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 99%.
Compared with the average
| Reform UK | Conservative | Labour | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Southend West and Leigh | 28.0% | 27.4% | 23.7% | 10.4% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 23.1%+5.0 | 20.4%+7.0 | 24.3%−0.5 | 10.4% |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 103,014 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 42 |
| Employment rate | 84.8% |
Current member
David Burton-Sampson · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 4.2 points.
Our current projection: Reform UK ahead by 1.5 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| David Burton-Sampson Elected | Labour | 16,739 | 35.6 |
| Anna Firth | Conservative | 14,790 | 31.5 |
| Peter Little | Reform UK | 8,273 | 17.6 |
| Tilly Hogrebe | Green | 3,262 | 7.0 |
| Stephen Cummins | Lib Dems | 3,174 | 6.8 |
| James Miller | Other | 262 | 0.6 |
| Tom Darwood | Other | 172 | 0.4 |
| Jason Pilley | Other | 99 | 0.2 |
| Lara Hurley | Other | 99 | 0.2 |
| Robert Francis | Other | 98 | 0.2 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Castle Point Reform UK, toss-up
- Maldon Conservative, toss-up
- Rayleigh and Wickford Reform UK, toss-up
- Rochester and Strood Reform UK, competitive
- Gillingham and Rainham Reform UK, toss-up
- South Basildon and East Thurrock Reform UK, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated