Maldon
Westminster constituency · England · East of England
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Conservatives a 94% chance of winning, with an average lead of 2.9 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 88%.
Compared with the average
| Conservative | Reform UK | Labour | Lib Dems | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maldon | 35.1% | 32.3% | 12.3% | 10.4% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 20.4%+14.7 | 23.1%+9.2 | 24.3%−11.9 | 10.3%+0.1 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 101,186 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 47 |
| Employment rate | 82.2% |
Current member
Sir John Whittingdale · Conservative
Previous election (2024)
The Conservatives won by 13.9 points.
Our current projection: the Conservatives ahead by 2.9 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| John Whittingdale Elected | Conservative | 19,374 | 38.9 |
| Pamela Walford | Reform UK | 12,468 | 25.0 |
| Onike Gollo | Labour | 9,817 | 19.7 |
| Simon Burwood | Lib Dems | 5,882 | 11.8 |
| Isobel Doubleday | Green | 2,300 | 4.6 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Rayleigh and Wickford Reform UK, toss-up
- Castle Point Reform UK, toss-up
- Basildon and Billericay Reform UK, competitive
- Southend West and Leigh Reform UK, toss-up
- Chelmsford Lib Dems, safe seat
- South Basildon and East Thurrock Reform UK, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated