Chelmsford
Westminster constituency · England · East of England
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Lib Dems a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 11.0 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Lib Dems | Conservative | Reform UK | Labour | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chelmsford | 36.7% | 25.7% | 21.3% | 7.4% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 10.3%+26.4 | 20.4%+5.3 | 23.1%−1.7 | 24.3%−16.9 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 108,155 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 39 |
| Employment rate | 78.6% |
Current member
Marie Goldman · Lib Dems
Previous election (2024)
The Lib Dems won by 9.4 points.
Our current projection: the Lib Dems ahead by 11.0 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Marie Goldman Elected | Lib Dems | 20,214 | 39.9 |
| Vicky Ford | Conservative | 15,461 | 30.5 |
| Darren Ingrouille | Reform UK | 6,754 | 13.3 |
| Richard Parry | Labour | 6,108 | 12.0 |
| Reza Hossain | Green | 1,588 | 3.1 |
| Richard Hyland | Other | 230 | 0.5 |
| Mark Lawrence | Other | 187 | 0.4 |
| Mark Kenlen | Other | 105 | 0.2 |
| Kamla Sangha | Other | 69 | 0.1 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Basildon and Billericay Reform UK, competitive
- Rayleigh and Wickford Reform UK, toss-up
- Maldon Conservative, toss-up
- Witham Conservative, toss-up
- Brentwood and Ongar Conservative, toss-up
- North West Essex Conservative, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated