Witham
Westminster constituency · England · East of England
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Conservatives a 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 4.5 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 62%.
Compared with the average
| Conservative | Reform UK | Labour | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Witham | 33.1% | 28.6% | 17.9% | 10.1% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 20.4%+12.7 | 23.1%+5.6 | 24.3%−6.3 | 10.4%−0.3 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 104,321 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 43 |
| Employment rate | 78.7% |
Current member
Priti Patel · Conservative
Previous election (2024)
The Conservatives won by 10.2 points.
Our current projection: the Conservatives ahead by 4.5 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Priti Patel Elected | Conservative | 18,827 | 37.2 |
| Rumi Chowdhury | Labour | 13,682 | 27.0 |
| Timothy Blaxill | Reform UK | 9,870 | 19.5 |
| James Abbott | Green | 3,539 | 7.0 |
| Ashley Thompson | Lib Dems | 3,439 | 6.8 |
| Chelsey Jay | Other | 1,246 | 2.5 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Maldon Conservative, toss-up
- Rayleigh and Wickford Reform UK, toss-up
- Chelmsford Lib Dems, safe seat
- Southend West and Leigh Reform UK, toss-up
- Harwich and North Essex Conservative, toss-up
- Southend East and Rochford Reform UK, toss-up
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated